Google+ Running in Cork, Ireland: Long term weather forecast for the 2022 Cork City Marathon

Thursday, May 26, 2022

Long term weather forecast for the 2022 Cork City Marathon

Thurs 26th May 2022: With 10-days to go, it is impossible to make any really type of accurate prediction of what the weather will be like for the 2022 Cork City Marathon on the 5th of June. We can however look at computer models and trends and see what they suggest for the long term.

The image above shows the position of the Jetstream on the 26th of May. This strong westerly airflow acts like a conveyor dragging in a succession of low pressure weather systems across the Atlantic.

We can see this from the current conditions... cool and windy for the end of May.

The current computer models show this changing for the end of next week though.

The model suggests that a high pressure system will become established up by Iceland while a low pressure system will be the dominant feature down by the Azores. This is the reverse of the usual situation.

The Purple arrows show the general air flow of these systems and is generally in a westerly direction. In effect, the Jetstream will become a lot weaker and will start to meander. The 'conveyor' will stop dragging low pressure systems directly towards us.

This suggests that...

1) The winds for the 5th of June are likely to be lighter.

2) The weather will become more settled.

3) The temperatures are expected to rise.

It's a good sign for people that want to enjoy the Bank holiday weekend but it means that it may be very warm for running a marathon or half-marathon.

By the 31st of May, we should have more accurate forecasts as it will be only five days out at that stage. In the meantime, be sure to plan for running in warm weather.

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