Athletics Ireland membership growth grinds to a halt in 2018

Athletics Ireland have just released their membership stats for the end of December 2018 and here are some of the key points...

1) Membership numbers have effectively stopped growing

2) A drop in Juvenile numbers

3) Masters numbers (adults aged 35 and above) continues to grow

4) Senior numbers (adults aged 20-34) level off

The stats in more detail....

Latest stats from Athletics Ireland shows membership growth stalling

For the first few months of any year, membership stats don't mean a whole lot as clubs are trying to get members to renew. After April or May however, the bulk of the membership for the year is in and some trends can be spotted.

Athletics Ireland have just released their stats for their membership at the end of May 2018 and they show several main points...

1) Growth in club membership seems to have stalled.

2) Continuing drop in the number of younger adults (aged under 35 yrs)

3) Drop in juvenile membership

4) Continued growth in the number of recreational runners aged 35+.

National membership stalling ......The chart below shows how the membership for Athletics Ireland has stopped growing....

The numbers for the end of May 2018 are actually slightly lower than May of 2017. This is the first decline in national membership for many years and suggests that the year end figure for 2018 should be around 60,000. Based on previous growth rates, Athletics Ireland had set a target of 70,000 members by the year 2020 which now looks increasingly unlikely.

Continued decline in adults aged under 35... The number of seniors (adults aged under 35) continues to drop and has been like this for a number of years.

Some stats for the 2018 Mallow 10 mile road race...

Following on from the 2018 Mallow 10 mile road race last Sunday, it's time to have a look at some stats!

First up, this is the breakdown by club of those that finished...

Last year, there were 20 clubs with 10 or more members. This year, it's 26. There were 7 clubs with 20 or more members last year while this year it's 9.

Almost 68% of the finishers are members of some type of club while just under 59% are actually members of an Athletics Ireland affiliated club.

Just over 1240 runners finished the race, almost exactly the same as last year.

In 2017, 46% of the finishers were women. That dropped this year to 43.4%.

In fact, the biggest drop in numbers seems to be younger women aged under 40.

As you can see from the chart above, the numbers for those aged 40 and above held up pretty well but those aged under 40 dropped.

For the men, the pattern is nearly the same with the decline in those aged under 40.

This follows a pattern for other races and club membership in that it shows that the average runner is getting older. The vast majority of adult members in athletic clubs are now what would be termed 'recreational runners' while the number of young adults actually involved in say track and field events is falling.

This is the breakdown of the finish times by gender in 5 minute increments.

The average woman was about 15 minutes slower than the average man which seems a lot, I would have expected something like a 10 minute difference for a 10 mile race. In fact, just 14 women broke 70 minutes which is pretty low considering that almost 540 women ran.

Overall, there are no big suprises in there, just a confirmation of existing trends. I'm not really sure why the number of younger adults is dropping. I'm assuming that it might be the fact that more people are now working compared to a few years back and younger adults are busier? Whatever the reason, that's the way things seem to be going at the moment.

Some stats...Dublin Marathon V New York Marathon

In the last two weeks, we've had the Dublin and New York City marathons and it's interesting to compare some of the stats.

The 2017 New York City Marathon had a whopping 50,770 finishers this year. Dublin had about a third as much with 15,892.

In Dublin, 5,106 women crossed the finish line which was 32.7% of the field. As Irish marathons go, that's about normal. In New York, the percentage of women was much higher at 41.5%.

The chart below shows the breakdown of finishers in the New York City Marathon by age and gender. One thing that stands out is the high numbers of women under the age of 30. While there is no exact breakdown like this for the Dublin marathon, I suspect it may not be as high.

Barry Smyth of UCD has put together some stats of his own for the 2017 Dublin City Marathon...link HERE.

Some key points for the 2017 Dublin Marathon...
1) Some 4,000 people of the 20,000 total registered did not turn up or finish the Dublin Marathon. That represents 20%.

2) Approx 60% of the finishers are between the ages of 35–49. No big suprise there and on par with other events.

3) Looking at the chart on that site, the average finish time is roughly 4:00 to 4:05 for men and 4:20 to 4:25 for women. In New York, the average finish time for men is 4:25:14 and for women, it's 4:53:00. In other words, the finishing times in Dublin are about 20-25 mins faster.

Why? Congestion might be partially to blame or maybe the course is harder. I suspect though that a big reason is that the average American runner is just slower.

4) In Barry's stats, he found that club runners were roughly about 15 mins faster than non-club. That's probably no great suprise as you'd expect club runners to be a bit more serious about training.

There are plenty of other stats on that site so it's worth a look.

Entry list and stats for the Mallow 10 mile road race

The 2017 Mallow 10 mile road race is coming up on Sunday the 26th of March and the entry list has now been published. The links are up on the race website... https://mallowtenmile.wordpress.com/2017/03/14/info-for-the-2017-mallow-10-mile-road-race/

Club & Gender balance : As you can see from the chart below, about 55% of the entrants are members of a club. The percentage of women entered is 46% which is close to the 45.1% percentage that took part in the recent Dungarvan 10 mile road race.

Category breakdown: This is the breakdown of entries by age. Again, no major suprise with the bulk of runners aged 35 and over. The Senior category would be made up of those aged 20 to 34 and it's probably safe to say that the vast majority are probably in the 30-34 age bracket.

Just one curious point. Notice how there are more Over 40 women than O40 men? Back in February of this year, I put up the stats for the Dungarvan 10 mile road race and I noticed something similar. I thought it was just a one off thing but it's not. For whatever reason, there seems to be a peak in women in the 40-44 age category while the peak for the men is in the 35-39 age group. As to why there are so many women aged 40-44 running, I have no idea.

This is the breakdown of the entries by club (5 or more)

The host club Mallow AC take the top spot and are followed by Eagle AC with 42, Grange Fermoy AC with 32 and St.Finbarr's AC & Watergrasshill AC with 28.

For the latest info and updates, go to the race website... https://mallowtenmile.wordpress.com/

Some stats for the 2017 Dungarvan 10 mile road race

The annual Dungarvan 10 mile road race in Co.Waterford is one of the biggest races on the calendar and attracts a huge number of runners from Cork. The chart below shows the clubs who had more than 20 members in the results...

Some points...

1) As expected, the host club West Waterford AC has the highest number of finishers. At the end of 2016, the club had 326 adult members and they had 134 finishers, 41% of their membership.

2) The Red dots shows just how clubs from Cork are some of the biggest in the event. In most races, it's usually local clubs who are the largest. In this case, four clubs from Cork and one from Tipperary had more finishers than Waterford AC who might have been expected to be the second largest.

3) Looking through the rest of the results with clubs less than 20 members, the pattern is the same...mostly from Cork. It's probably safe to assume that the bulk of the non-club runners are from Cork as well. In many ways, it's almost like a Cork race that was held in Co.Waterford ;o)

4) The catchment area for the Dungarvan 10 mile road race is about 100kms or 60 miles. The vast majority of the runners are within this distance. Relatively few travel from Dublin or elsewhere in the country.

Gender balance.........This is a breakdown of men and women...

Usually, the percentage of women in a 10 miler / half-marathon is about 40-42 %. The figure of 45.1% is probably a bit higher than usual. It is certainly a big change from say 10-15 years ago when the figure might have been down around 30%.

Male numbers........This is a breakdown of the men....

One interesting thing to note here is that there is no M35 category like in the women. If there were then you'd probably see that the bulk of the Senior Men (MS) shown above are aged 35 and over.

Female numbers.....This is a breakdown of the female numbers.

As you can see, the number of F35 women is almost the same as the number of F40 women. It's probable that most of the Senior Women (FS) are most likely in the 30-34 age category. This would follow the membership stats for most adults in athletic clubs i.e. the vast majority are aged 30 and above with relatively few people in their 20's running.

Results and links to thousands of photos can be found in this previous post.

Addendum...
Here are some of the numbers for the smaller clubs......

Entry Stats for the 2017 Mallow 10 mile road race

Now that the entries to the Mallow 10 mile road race have closed, here are some of the stats...

Of the 1250 entries, roughly 55% are members of a club. That compares to 56% last year so there is little change.

Last year, nearly 43% of the entries were women. This time around, it's up to 46% which is high as 10 mile road races go. It tends to be around the 40% mark usually.

The chart above shows the age profile. There are no suprises there as it shows that most runners are in their late 30's or early 40's.

The next chart shows the breakdown of the top clubs by entry (10 or more)...

The host club as expected take the top spot with 78 entries. In second spot, Eagle AC have 43 with Grange Fermoy in third with 32.

A full list of the club entries can be seen below...

Some stats for the Charleville Half-Marathon...

Now that the 2016 Charleville Half-Marathon is behind us, it's time to just take a quick look at some stats.

Numbers......There was a record 965 finishers this year in Charleville. The chart below shows how the numbers have progressed over the years....from 446 in 2011 to 965 in 2016.

As I have said before on the blog, any event that is holding their own at the moment is doing very well in light of all the races to choose from. As you can see, not only is Charleville holding its own but it's getting even more popular.

Not only that but it was also going head to head with two other half-marathons on over the weekend in Kilkenny. The Medieval Half-Marathon got 127 and the JJ Reddy Half got 222 and both of these would have taken some of the runners from Tipperary and Waterford.

Breakdown......This is the breakdown of times for the 2016 Charleville Half-Marathon in five minute blocks.

This is pretty close to the usual shape for a half-marathon which tends to have a flat peak. As men are usually faster than women, they would account for the peak around 1:40 while women are responsible for the peak around 1:55.

Gender Ratio......Women accounted for 36.3% of the field.

Are the top times dropping???.......Someone left this comment after the results post...

"It's a shame to see the standard for the elite women's race drop this year. The winner "Lee" had an easy run "1:19:47" to win the race, a poor performance by elite standard's. Maria McCambridge ran 1:13 in 2012, 1:12 in 2014, 1:13 in 2015! The standard has dropped by at least 6 minutes for the elite women's this year, why?"

First off...another chart!! :o)

a) The first one on the left shows the winning times for the first man in Charleville over the years. It hasn't changed a whole lot and it's usually about 66 mins.

b) There are prizes for the first 8 so I had a look at the times for the 8th man over the years to see if the top runners were getting slower. The important thing to remember here is that the overall numbers for the race have been increasing over the years. This hasn't made a huge change to the top 8 times however. The fastest field for the top 8 men was back in 2014.

c) So what about the women? Lizzie Lee's winning time in 2016 was over six minutes slower than last year but Lizzie also ran a 2:39 marathon in Rio just 5 weeks ago and would be still recovering from it. But it still raises the question of where were all the other fast women at the business end of the race?

d) The time for the 8th woman just reinforces the fact that the very fast women were mostly missing. For example, in 2012 there were 635 finishers in total and the first 8 women were under 1h 25m. This year in 2016, there were 965 finishers overall and the 8th woman was over 1h 30m.

As for why there was a drop in the top women compared to the top men??? One reason could be that the top women are spread out over more races? Looking at the results of other races in Cork and Munster, I suspect that there are just fewer women running fast times now compared even to just a few years back.

Any suggestions?

Addendum : As well as people leaving comments, some send them by e-mail. One person mentioned the following points...
1) The World Championships are coming up in London in 2017 and some of the top women in the country may well be targetting the 2:38 qualificiation time in the Berlin Marathon next weekend.
2) The Dublin Half-Marathon is also coming up and a lot of people will run that instead of Charleville. As fast as Charlevile is, it is also way down the country for a lot of the top runners.
3) He also made the point that at the end of the day, every race is just that...a race. The winning times reflect what it took to win the race rather than what someone might be capable of.

Entries & Stats for the 2016 Mallow 10 mile road race

The annual Mallow 10 mile road race is coming up on Sunday the 20th of March and entries closed last Friday.

There are 1,375 entries and the master list can be seen HERE

From the organisers...."Please check your own name for your age category and club and if there is any error.  This is important to allow a smooth presentation of prizes.  On the day changes become difficult to manage during prize giving.   This year with 2 team prizes on offer, it's important that people have identified their club to make them eligible for team prizes.  We won’t be able to modify the club on the day.

The contact address mallow10milerace AT gmail DOT com

All numbers will be posted out on Monday so people should expect to get them during the week.   If anybody hasn’t received their number by Tuesday the 15th, they can contact me and I will reissue a new number that can be collected at the help desk.

Paudie Birmingham....Mallow AC "

Remember, there is loads of info up on the race website... https://mallowtenmile.wordpress.com/

Some stats.......
1) 42.8% of the entries are from women which is pretty much in line with most popular 10 road races and half-marathons.

2) Roughly 56% of all entries are members of an athletics club or running group.

3) These are the clubs with 10 or more entries...

Mallow AC as the host club has the largest number of entries followed by Grange Fermoy AC. Eagle AC is the largest from Cork City while Clonmel AC has an impressive number considering they are over 40 miles away.

4) This is a breakdown of the entries by age (in four year blocks)...

It's important to remember that this chart is for absolute numbers and not percentages. It's also important to note that this is for a 10 mile road race. It might be different for say a 5k which tends to attract a higher percentage of women..

As you can see, the bulk of all entries are between 30 and 49 years old with a peak around 34-45. It's interesting to see that those in their 20's are largely missing. It may not be all that suprising when it probably matches the age profile of most clubs. As shown in this previous post , the growth in club members who are masters (aged 35 and above) has been very strong over the last few years while the number of adults aged 34 and under has been pretty flat.

The chart below shows an averaged out version of the one above...

 

There is one obvious feature from the graphs...

a) As a percentage, there are more women than men in the 22 to 33 year old age bracket. Is it a case that younger men are off playing other sports in their 20's and only take up running when they're older?

Ballycotton 10 numbers...1978 to 2015

You can be looking at numbers until you're blue in the face but sometimes a nice simple graph makes the data jump out. The chart below shows the number of finishers every year since 1978...total, sub 60 mins, sub 70 mins and sub 80 mins....

a) Overall Numbers....As you can see, after an initial surge it was steady for most of the late 80's....grew slowly until about 2003-4 and then it really took off. The dip in 2001 was due to the Foot & Mouth crisis when the March event was cancelled and it was held in June instead. The record peak in 2006 was when the organisers left entries open until a certain date I think and loads of people entered. It's been restricted since then but the numbers turning up has been growing gradually.

b) 80 plus finishers......In the 'Results & Photos post', a number of people left comments saying people didn't require water for a 10 mile race. Perhaps that might have been the case before the year 2000 when most finishers were running under 80 minutes. That is no longer the case and as you can see above, those with finishing times over 80 minutes now make up a clear majority.

c) Fast runners......The numbers are small but I think you can see that the numbers breaking the hour mark  in recent times are down on the numbers back in the 80's and 90's. It's remarkable how steady the number of the sub 70 minute runners has been. It's about the same every year since 1983 despite the huge jump in overall numbers. For the last decade, the number of sub 80 minute runners has been pretty steady.

d) Women.....One major factor in the graph above is that there are now a lot more women running. Years ago, the % of women in the race was down around 20-25% whereas now, it's about 39%. As women in general are slower than men, they would account for a lot of the finishers over the 80 minute mark.

Another stat to consider is this. Last December, about 3700 people entered the Ballycotton 10. Last Sunday, about 2700 took part which means 1000 people didn't make it to the start line. That's about 27%. No doubt some people got injured or maybe they had to work but I'd guess the majority of that 1000 are people who had great intentions of doing it last December but never ended up doing the training. The remarkable thing is that it is pretty consistent every year...about 1000 don't turn up.