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Thursday, March 13, 2014

Some stats on the 2014 Ballycotton 10...

Just a quick look back at some of the numbers for this years Ballycotton 10 race.

1) Number of finishers...In 2012, a total of 2617 people ran the race. That dropped to 2601 in 2013 and 2571 in 2014. In most normal races, a drop might be considered a reflection on the popularity of a race but that can't be said for the Ballycotton 10 as the online entries had sold out in 90 minutes last December and they could have taken many more entries if they were able to.

The slight drop is most likely due to the change in the entry process and just the number of people not turning up on the day. The most remarkable thing about it is probably just how consistent it is year after year. The difference between 2012 and 2014 was only 1.8% despite the fact that there was an extended window for club runners and potentially lots more could have entered. It seems that the club entry level is pretty constant as well and the organisers can be reasonably sure that if they keep the same entry criteria then 2,500 to 2,600 people will turn up in March of 2015.

2) The number of no-shows...This was an issue that came up in the comments section for the results of the race. The graph below shows the change in the last two years...


It was 26.9% in 2012, 26.2% in 2013 and 28.5% in 2014. The slight rise this year may be due to the fact that there were a lot more places available online and there may have been more 'impulse' entries as opposed to previous years when people had to print out forms, get a postal order or cheque and post them off. Again, the most remarkable thing really is just how consistent the levels are. The organisers can say that roughly 1,000 people are almost certain not to turn up on race day.

Some might ask then why can't they defer their entry to the following year because they are injured, sick , etc. It is fine from an individual point of view but it would be a nightmare trying to administer hundreds of people trying to defer their entry. At the end of the day, this is a race run on a non-profit basis by volunteers and it's up to individuals in December where they want to enter or not. It's not the organisers fault if someone can't make it to the start line.

Just on a further point, I did a quick check to see if club runners were more likely to turn up on race day. I took the numbers for the ten largest clubs and checked them. There was quite of bit of variation between the clubs as they ranged from 20% to 40% no shows. However, when I took the numbers for the ten clubs as a whole and worked out the no shows then the average level is at 28.5%, exactly the same as the overall figure.

Conclusion....club runners are no more or no less likely to turn up on the day as compared to a non-club runner.

3) Percentage of women....Back in late January, I had a post up which showed the percentage of women in the Dungarvan 10 mile road race had grown from 28.5% to almost 41% in the last five years.

With the Ballycotton 10, it has stayed pretty consistent for at least the last three years. In 2012, it was 36%. In 2013, it was 39% and in 2014, it dropped slightly to 38.4%.


One possible answer to this might come from the fact that athletic clubs tend to have a higher percentage of men compared to women. As there was an extended window for club runners to enter then it might offer one reason as to why the number of women is steady at about 39%.

6 comments:

  1. Some great stats there, well done John. I really have to do this race sometime - and if I get an entry I promise I'll show up!

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  2. Have serious probs with no-show. I have done this race for years, and this years cut-off was very tight. If I missed it and found 925 people who had got a number never showed up then I would be very cross. Respect the race, respect other runners.
    One club had 40 no-shows. not good enough, They should know better....

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  3. I understand people's feelings re no-shows however this is an occurence in all races, just discussed for BC10 every year. I am a club runner who waited until after the cut-off before entering so that a place would be given to a non-club runner. Unfortunately due to a unforeseen injury I was unable to race, I was devastated as it is a fantastic event!

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  4. i ran the race - had a great day . two points - I'm a fully paid up member of a club, I know that on paper our club had a great entry list - on closer inspection about 20% were not members , but when entering they ticked the box and out club. they should make people fill in there AI member no. when entering... 2nd point , again i know locally that a large number of people didnt run as they "hadnt the miles done" due to the bad weather!!!

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  5. John, You may be able to confirm this but as far as I know, the organisers bank on that many no shows and that is why they accept over 3500 entries. If for any reason they did all turn up then the entry limit would be reduced the following year. I've heard a number of less than 3000 is the outside limit of what they can cope with.

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  6. "as far as I know, the organisers bank on that many no shows and that is why they accept over 3500 entries."

    If for some reason there was a significant drop in the number of no-shows then yes, they would probably cut back on the original number.

    A figure of roughly 2600 people on the day is about the maximum they can handle.

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