The article leads with the statement... "More than 10,000 runners failed to make it across the finishing line of the Dublin Marathon, suggesting a drop out rate of 40pc. Organisers had boasted about 25,000 people being “registered and ready" to take part in the race last Sunday."
I had a look at the numbers for 2022 and they are shown in the chart above. On the day, a total of 14,847 runners crossed the finishing line with a further 329 starting the race but not finishing (DNF).
The obvious answer for the 10,000 shortfall is that most of those people entered the race back at the end of 2019. Then along comes the pandemic and there's the best part of a three year gap between when people entered and when they were supposed to run.
In that time, a lot of people have moved on to other things or just lost interest. For the likes of a marathon, it's a big commitment for most people in terms of time and training. It's not like a 5k or 10k race where regular runners could just turn up and get around.
Race Director Jim Aughney told the Irish Independent as much in his response... “We had 25,000 registered, but we had entries from 2020, transferred to 2021 and then again into 2022. Many, it looks like, had not continued their training, and decided not to go on Sunday, but we had no way of determining that in advance. We would have a fall-off each year, but because of the three-year gap on most entries, the fall-off was higher than normal this year.”
The percentage of 'no-shows' in 2022 was around 39%. I had a look back at 2019 and the percentage then was 21% which probably around the norm for a race of this length.
It's very probable that this 'missing 10,000' was just a one-off and it'll be back to around 20% no-shows again in 2023.
Compare this to New York Marathons 98.1% finishers - and you can be sure they had similar problems with race entry carry overs from covid years. A 20% no show is not a good statistic either..I wonder is this the normal for other major marathons or is the truth somewhere in the middle.
ReplyDeleteThey should remove the time limit so please can walk it
DeleteThe price for NY is huge....maybe that makes runners really consider if they are going to run before signing up.
DeleteNew york had a marathon in 2021,
DeleteThey really should allow a number transfer system in the weeks leading up to the marathon
ReplyDeleteThey had a number collection on the Friday and Saturday , before the marathon,so surely they would have known if all the numbers weren't collected, there was not going to be 25000 at the start line
ReplyDeleteWhen Jim says they had no way of knowing how many would show up in advance, he fails to mention that they didn't provide any refund or transfer options for people in 2022 at all. I'm sure they knew there would be a dropoff of some kind, but took the conscious decision to not allow refunds/transfers this year as they'd be out of pocket. Which is further compounded by the fact they had a lottery in January, so those who got in then had no chance at all of a refund. This was the case for me- I got into NYC after the Dublin lottery, had no rebate opportunity so had to keep both entries and not attend Dublin. First world problems for us, but they definitely had the financial implications in mind!
ReplyDeleteThey did allow a refund this year. I think the deadline was in June. For whatever the reason, people didn't take up the offer or didn't bother training.
DeleteHotel availability and cost had to have been a huge factor. A lot different prices from 2019 when people would have signed up to 2022
ReplyDeleteSo about 10,000 finisher t-shirts and medals go to the dump?
ReplyDeleteWhen they say they had no idea what they mean was they made no effort to find out. they did have the contact details of all the runners. Allowing numbers to be transferred would also have helped but something the organisers have refused to entertain unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteThe week after the race is too early to ask people to sign up for the subsequent year. People may sign up just in case due to wanting to secure a place but then have something cause them to be unable to run a year later. A formal transfer or refund window should be in place.
ReplyDeleteEven in 2019 there were 4,000 no shows out of 20,000. This is not a new issue. Delay opening the entry window until January or even later, and have a transfer window in late spring or early summer.
Completely agree that 12 months is way too early to ask people to sign up for next year and only increases the no shows. 6 months is more than enough time to open for entries for a marathon.
DeleteI have done 3 marathons in the past.
ReplyDeleteBrillant experience.I could not keep up the training routine required so wished I could return my entry so someone else could enjoy the event.But no was the answer.
I got COVID a week before and I had to drop out (after 3 months of training!). I emailed Dublin marathon to ask if I could defer. Still no response to my email.
ReplyDeleteRegarding transfers, they could charge 10 or 15 quid to transfer. I don't think people would mind paying that given the admin involved. And Dublin Marathon would make a bit of extra cash for little work.
I imagine the main reason most no-shows did not turn up is because they had registered in 2020 (Covid) and by the time the race came around in 2022 they were not in shape to run, I ran it myself and I can confirm I was most definitely not race ready but I completed it all the same.
ReplyDeleteReally for €113 there should be a system in place to transfer. The Belfast marathon's transfer system takes 5 minutes online and this is a run still far behind Dublin in support and overall organisation. I have attended Dublin twice with my club and of 20 runners only 5 ran under their own name. It's a huge issue. Most will need at 16 weeks to train. It is almost impossible to know if you will be fit to take part even within a few weeks of the event. There's illness, injury, personal commitments and well... LIFE that can just crop up and ruin plans. If the system is completely inflexible it's no wonder the drop-out rate is so high and its a real shame because I am convinced a large part of those 10,000 unused entries couldve went to people only too pleased to take part. I even know runners capabile of taking it on with a few days notice (and I'm sure I'm not alone in that).
ReplyDelete